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Ian Jukes
Living on the Digital Edge
Understanding Change in an Age of Uncertainty
6-18-2002
This is a brand new version of presentation he's done for awhile
www.ianjukes.com
http://www.thecommittedsardine.net/handouts/lfe.pdf
-download the presentation
- his job is not to educate us, it is to irritate us, challenge us
Want us to get away from the tyranny of the urgent
Everyone in this room has been in classrooms since age 5
- the educentric box
- have had little time to see what is going on outside education
- we need to see outside of this box
This is a drive by presentation, about 2 hours of work in 60 minutes
Picture of a kid: wants to talk to use about change
- change is subtle
What really puts it in perspective is his child
- now is 6'5 1/2 and 298 lbs, size 18 shoes
photo of kid feet and adult feet
photo of earth in our hands
whatever kind of change we are talking about: our kids, our world, our schools, because of the tyranny of the urgent it is very difficult for us to comprehend it
Photo of him in police setting with sign: I haev very strong opinions
electronics stores give new meaning to concept of disposable income
We are dealing with something called exponential growth
- change happening so quickly our minds can't keep up
- something comes up so fast and chagnes things that have been happening the same way for decades
We are often trying to understand what his happening from a position of discomfort
- this can cause us to reconsider what it means to be human beings
Never seems to happen sooner than ever before
- something unheard of yesterday can become common tomorrow
we are in the midst of an exponential revolution
The nature of exponential change
- the power of doubling
- shows construction photo and discusses need to build new addition for school, then shows penny
shows phto of calculator
then goes thru days and increases in cost
Problem happens because exponential growth is insistent, it keeps doubling
Total: make over 21 million
Only the last few days had the biggest impact
Thomas Gladpoint calls this the tipping point: when change becomes overwhelming
6 exponential trends we can't ignore
1- Moore's Law named after Gordon Moore
- chief research scientist for intel who has 85% of microprocessors in the world
- doubling in processing power every 18 months, reduces in power by 50%
12 years ago Cray SNP costs $17 million, took staff to run it, Cray wouldn't run Windows
shows graph of processing power increases
Moore's recently said in Wired magazine, based on
- no indication in decrease in moore's law till 2015-2020
showed photo of crystal ball reader
Jukes is less interested in us as in the kids who will graduate in 2015
- what type of technology will be common to them and us
extrapolate now to 2015
IBM has item the size of Rubic's cube that stores as much as 2015 computer in holograms
Now can get solar powered calculator for 29 cents
Read the "Age of Spiritual Machines" by Ray Kirtz
- law of accelerating returns
- Moore's law will be superceded by nanotech, DNA, and other techs that will accelerate rate of change by HUGE numbers
Does using a different type of handheld change what we are doing in our curriculum
Moore's Law, the technology of it, has let to trend 2
Trend 2: Law of the Photon
1200 baud modem
using 2 strands of coaxial modem, can download at 10 MBPS = CD ROM in 60 seconds
- work of secretary typing 12 years of work
Fiber- 1 strand of fiber laser light of
- 10 Gbps, 3 CDROMS per second
- all works of Shakespeare in 200 langugaes, shipped from 43 ten thousandths of a second
10 trillion mbps, down 1 strand of fiber in
800 strands or more in 1 fiber
"Telecausal" by George ____ talks about fiber and law of the photon
- bandwidth tripling every year
- cost of sending data long distance is falling BIG TIME
- this is continuting for 20 years
despite fact we are seeing impressive bandwidth, we are seeing
Growing power of wireless
- ultrawirelessband just approved
- 3-5 years we will will have fiber speed thru wireless networks
This means anytime anywhere access to information
Does this change what skills our students need in the classroom?
What are we doing in education right now
- ripple effect (photo of water droplet)
- Moore's law plus Law of the Photon
Trend #3 - Emergence of the Insternet
Law of diminishing astonishment
- for him Aug 23 1995 - text based internet
- someone showed Ian Mosaic web browser: this was a personal pivotal moment
From on day we went from being propellerheads to something else
- in 2001 average adult american spent more money accessing the world wide wait than watching movies
This has happened in just 8 years
500 million regular users of internet in 170 countries, despite downturn of internet economy
1990 15 million email
now 400 million email boxes in US alone
that is more than people, phones, etc
60 percent of homes online
70 percent of homes with kids online
in 7 months there will be more webapges than people on planet earth
cyberspace used to just be for geeks
- now it is a middle class suburb
Trying to download email on modem now is like trying to suck peanut butter down a straw
Need to understand changes today
Hitachi prototype has mp3 player, DVD player, with computer
Internet use in America is going to absolutely go thru the roof
10 years from now the internet will be unrecognizable
- we will put on headsets, use the intelligent web to go out on the web
When we reach the tipping point, change stops being predictable and starts coming at us like a tsunami
830 million of internet related sales worldwide last year
- way more than US auto industry income
This will be THE dominant communication medium of the next 10 years
- Ian is neither chicken nor little
It is almost impossible to overstate the significance of this to our lives
Why? Interesection of moore's law and internet
- we have absolutely overwhelmed
We live in the day of disposable info
- newspaper arrives on our porch and it is out of date
Take all recorded history to 1992 and view as ball of twine, size of the ball has increased by 20 times
Soon it will double every 2 weeks
Has let to devaluation of technical information (KEY POINT)
- half of what students learn in 1st year of tech school will be
Half life of info for scientist today is 2 years
- depreciation of info fvalue
U Cal Berkeley
- tried to quantify amount of info generated each year (text, audio
- 1. 5 exabytes (1 followed by 18 zeros) of info generated each year
equals 250 books, 250 MB of data, 1/2 a CD for everyoen on the planet, 90% digital, vitually all accessible
Does this hold implications for schools
1 out of 10 taught out of public schools in 1990
- today it is 1 in 4, and this is before the internet really has a significant impact on education
Understand: info age come together when these 3 trends came together
TREND 5: Biotechnology
biological processes, pharmacology, medicaine, agriculture, mining, bread, chesse, winte nad beer, now anitbiotic,s, insulin, interferon
Emergence of PHARMING
- genetically engineered animals used to create medicines (in addition to organs)
Human Genome project
- 40,000 genes
- road map to entire genetic script
- 3000 to 4000 heredity diseases
- want to make therapies, tools, drugs, based on this map
- goal was 2005
- first draft was actually finished in June 2000
Why happen so quickly? Moore's law and rest of exponential trends
Showed another table of Human genome project, the number of nucleotides being mapped
By 2005 it will take 10 seconds to analyze
Now at the start of the Human Proteome Project, genes are blueprints of proteins
-40,000 genes, 3 billion combinations
- millions of proteins
- trillions of combinations
These will be developed and customized to meet the individual needs of people
Question: how have we changed the science and math curriculums of our school to adapt to these realities
These are UFP: Un Frigging Believeable
Now these first 5 trends: biotech and physcial tech is leading to:
Trend 6: Nanotechnology
Think about past purchases of component stereo systems
After 83, boom boxes came along
- convergence of separate boxes
This is because of Moore's law
- this has led to portablity and
compare this to IBM computer: 1956, Sept 13th
- could store 5 MB of data on 50 disks, each one was 24 inches
- same paint to
1 GB microdrive photo
- 10 years ago this would have been the size of a freezer
because of minitureization, today people wear more computing power on their wrist than existed in the entire world in 1961
discussion of Eniac computer
- attracted moths because of heat and uninsulated wires
- this is where the term 'computer bug' came from
- could do 5000 calculations per second
Who could have imagined this would lead to nintendo and cell phones
photo of microchip on finger
- microtechnology from intel, chip 1 third of an inch long, could even be smaller
- could inhale this chip and not realize it
- it is 10 million times more powerful than Eniac building based computer
If you could take laptop today and go to 1956, they would think you were the devil or from roswell, another dimension
Nanotech is not building things smaller, it is building things up from the atomic level
- will be used first to create nanomachines and nanobugs, self replicating that will be used to reverse human body processes
This will begin to happen in the next 5 years
Does this have any implications for us?
Stand back and do a PARADIGM CHECK
- what is a computer? what do you think of?
- desktop machine, laptop?
In airports you see the paradigms changing, until 10 monts ago you saw laptops
- now
3G is next generation cellecputers
700 million cell phones will be replaced by integrated entertainment and business centers, high speed access
- will discard ATM card and use as cash machine
- right now 215 dollars to 600 dollars, even has face to face video camera
- has GPS
next will have CVR- continuous voice recognition, 96% accuracy will let you speak 100 wpm
within 18 months, will have automatic voice translation (rumor)
Does this hold implications for the writing process, for language process
An internet viewing system, saw in London 3 months ago
- plug pair of glasses, plug into your computer
A $99 chatpen, write with inc, will track your writing, and it will translate yoru writing into text
- 16 hours of text to speech
never buy version 1 of any device
Boeing uses to wire 777s with GPS, have reduced wiring time for 777 by more than 80%
- for firefighers, mechanics, doctors
- it will be at WalMart soon
Retinal display, uses low level laser to project image on retina directly
Bionic eye is about to be implanted in stevie wonder
Showed wearable computer that uses voice to text
What does this mean for us as human
- we are becoming androids, 6 million dollar man (now 29 cents tho)
power of technology can no longer be viewed in isolation from what it means to be a human being
Stem cells: a neuroelectronic circuit
- humanity is being to merge with technology
- distinction between man and machine will blur
- soul and the silicon chip are going to become one
- this stuff is NOT science fictuion
"Singularity Is New" - within 20 years compouters can replicate the ability of the brain
What will this mean for tomorrow's students?
- 6 profound trends fundamentally changing our world
Probably nothing, because nothing else seems to change eduation from the path it is on
- when you use the 'yeah buts' it might be your paradigm interfering with reality
Difference in sci fi and reality is sci fi must be believable (David Thornburg)
Tomorrow's technology is already fundamentally changing teaching and learning
Tomorrow's learners will use these new tools for learning
- they will be disadvantaged if they don't
Because of new technologies because of these 6 trends, the fundamental nature of leanring has changed
- we have seen a change in what it means to be an intelligent person
- requires us to fundamentally rethink what students need to learn
do kids need to come to school all the time?
- till recently we didn't question this
Ian wants to model exponentializm in his presentation
Is this hopeless? Answer is YES!
- we just can't keep up if we keep focusing on installing technology instead of using it to transform the learning experience
Can't focus on the technology: then we MISS THE POINT.
Ian doesn't say he teachers technology, I teach CHILDREN
- the critical questions are not hardware issues, they are headset issues
Focus needs to be (when generation of kids show up in our classrooms who have never known a world without the internet)
- new visions for teaching and learning
Tech is not a subject, a curriculum
Not about teaching MS Word, about learning to be better writers
Not abotu excel, about problem solving
Not about powerpointlessness, about being a better communicator
Not about the PEN, about what I DO WITH THE PEN
Having kids learn, focusing on the thinking processes, learning should drive the use, tech should not drive the learning
Need to talk about the new fundamentals
- since 9/11 America is making a turn when it comes to problem based learning
- critical thinking, problem solving, transparent use of technology, focus on tasks not gadgets,
most powerful technology was is and will remain the classroom teacher
Must be a classroom teacher of love of learning, understanding of ethical dynamics, multiple intelligences
- any teacher that can be replaced by a computer deserves to be
Will what I describe really happen?
- yes, get over it and get on with things
- it is a question of when not if
We need to move quickly or the educational marketplace is going to find its experiences elesewhere
- they are going to rip our educational enterprise right out of our hands
It is not about you and me, it is not about our needs
- it is about the young ones, they are the future, just 20% of the population but they are 100% of the future
Future is something we are creating, paths to the future are made not found
Our role (Thornburg) is prepare for their future, not our past (industrial age)
Requires fundamental retooling of our minds
- Victor Hugo in Les Mis 1862: ideas not locomotives move the world, don't mistake the horse for the rider
All 1300 crazy sayings and this handout available, ijukes@mindspring.com
Will respond within 24 hours if you email him